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AJ: Time Running Out?

Many questions have persisted all season, is there still time to fix those problem areas?
Many questions have persisted all season, is there still time to fix those problem areas?


CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA – March is basically here, yet the same questions about North Carolina that were being asked in November and December are still on the docket today.

That’s why it’s either next to impossible or easy peasy to answer the following, persistent question, it just depends on your perception: Did North Carolina learn anything from Saturday’s 79-74 loss at Virginia?

Forget that the Tar Heels were awfully close to beating a Wahoos team in their own building despite not crossing enough Ts and dotting enough Is. This game was about how well the Heels played. Winning mattered, obviously, as the ACC regular season title is an extremely important carrot dangling in front of the Heels, and a few other teams, as well.

And there’s nothing wrong with losing at Virginia. In fact, teams such as Carolina can play well and lose to the Hoos in John Paul Jones Arena, because pretty much everyone does. But what was most important, if you’re solely looking at the big picture, thus the biggest prize of them all, was how the Heels played.

Play well, handle what must be handled and still come up short? That would have been easier to digest because it wouldn’t have knocked the Heels off track from a stretch of consecutive high-level performances in wins over Miami (once led by 38 points) and at N.C State (outscored the Pack 66-34 in one stretch).

But it didn’t work out that way. The Heels hit some shots, but needed a career-high 21 points on 5-9 3-point shooting from Joel Berry just to have a chance late Saturday night. Nobody expects that from Berry moving forward, so it can’t be anticipated.

What can be projected is the norm for the Heels, insight 29 games of evidence affords us. And what we saw Saturday was a team that is in some ways no better collectively than it was in November and December when those initial questions surfaced.

Are the Heels any better stopping dribble penetration?

Answer: Sometimes. That’s not a cop out because there have been stretches in recent weeks when they’ve elevated their on-ball defense, but it remains a significant enough issue that it was part of the equation in UVa’s victory.

Are the Heels any better defending the defensive glass?

Answer: No, not even close. Virginia came into the game 14th in offensive rebounding, yet the Cavaliers grabbed 13 of their misses leading to 14 second-chance points. Consider: In the last seven games, excluding the two games versus Boston College, a team not worth measuring anything against, the Tar Heels’ opponents have grabbed 109 offensive rebounds (15.6 per contest) scoring 107 second-chance points, which is a clip of 15.3 per game. UNC, in the same games, also has 109 offensive rebounds, but just 81 second-chance points, which is 11.6 points per game.

Check the margins of the defeats, and that’s a telling stat.

Are the Tar Heels tough enough?

Answer: No. In fairness, they have added a coat of armor of late, but it’s only a thin one and it’s not all encompassing. Toughness isn’t just exuding ruggedness, it’s knocking down the front ends of one-and-one free throws, it’s executing taught techniques to be more available on the lower blocks, it’s more quickly recognizing entry lanes to bigs and completing those plays, and it’s being smart on inbounds plays, and never, ever allowing someone an open jumper from 10 feet on and inbound with 2 seconds on the shot clock.

The questions from the pre-conference part of the schedule gained some company as January and February arrived:

Is Marcus Paige ever going to consistently regain his stroke?

Answer: All of the evidence we have suggests he will not, at least not by the end of this season. It appeared he was back after a 21-point performance at Notre Dame (a loss) 22 days ago. But Paige is just 20-56 (35.7) percent shooting overall from the floor since. He’s 5-23 (21.7 percent) from beyond the arc in UNC’s last four games.

Is Kennedy Meeks going to find his pre-injury form?

Answer: Appears not. Meeks gained some weight when saddled 7 games with an injury in late December and has not been the same player since. The problem with the weight gain is that the team doesn’t do enough cardio work for him to lose the weight, and they don’t want to give him the extra work to lose the weight because he needs his reserve for the games. And now, it appears his confidence has taken a significant hit, and he’s just not playing anywhere near the level that was expected.

There are other questions: Why couldn’t the Heels get Brice Johnson more than two field goal attempts in the final 17:12 versus Duke and one in the final 18:32 at UVa? Why do the guards appear to take too many shots in stretches? Why have some peculiar lineups found the floor in key segments of games? And why hasn’t this team peaked yet?

Actually, maybe it has. Maybe if was when they led Miami by 38. Maybe that was it, we don’t know.

And maybe the Tar Heels will learn from Saturday and apply it to Monday’s game with Syracuse and beyond. The again, maybe they won’t.

The evidence suggests they are what they are and those issues are a part of who they are.

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