3 Keys To Beating Duke

CHAPEL HILL – North Carolina has to manage more than three specific aspects to Wednesday’s home game versus Duke in order to beat the Blue Devils. But there are three keys that stand out a bit more than the others that will prove crucial in the outcome of this game.

Here they are:

Defending The 3 – Duke is going to take 3s on Wednesday night. That’s what the Blue Devils do, or part of it anyway. The belief is all Duke does is shoot from the perimeter, and the Devils do that more than any ACC team not named Syracuse. In fact, the Orange have attempted 52 more 3s in only one more game played.

Virginia, on the other hand, has attempted 200 fewer 3s than Duke has and the Wahoos have played one more game.

Duke, though, also loves getting to the rim (63 percent of its shots are inside the arc) and will take that pretty much every time if it’s available, but the Devils are also happy to kick the ball out to the perimeter for 3s when dribble penetration is cut off.

That, and getting perimeter look off of offensive rebounds are when the Devils are most deadly from the perimeter. Duke spaces out opposing defenses so well, and that’s been a problem for Carolina, including at times when fouls add up. Issues defending dribble penetration also could haunt the Tar Heels in the form of 3-pointers by the Blue Devils. It’s an important component in them getting open looks outside.

“They put a great deal of pressure on you by driving the ball,” UNC coach Roy Williams said Tuesday at the Smith Center. “So you’ve got to make the decision, ‘Do I help all the way in off this guy because my guy that I’m guarding is not a great 3-point shooter?’

“Well, that’s tough because most of their guys are pretty doggone good 3-point shooters. So, you’ve got to do a little bit of both: You’ve got to out a lot of pressure on every individual that’s guarding their man to do a good job themselves so you don’t need as much help.”

Duke is shooting 39.2 percent from beyond the arc while Carolina is allowing opponents to shoot 36.8 percent from out there, which ranks 12th in the ACC.

In ACC play, however, Duke is shooting a bit lower than it is overall at 36.9 percent while the Heels are defending slightly better than overall at 35 percent, and in UNC’s last four games opponents have limited opponents to 34.6 percent of their 3s.

Duke, though, is at 44.7 percent during its current 4-game winning streak, thus preventing that from carrying over is vital for UNC’s chances at winning the game.

Ingram & Allen – Pick your poison. Carolina goes big, Duke goes not-so-big, though freshman Brandon Ingram (17.2 points per game) is 6-9 with a longer wingspan. But he’s more a perimeter player, a capable ballhandler who can get teammates involved (2.1 apg) but also use his wiriness and agility to score near the rim and also grab rebounds (6.7).

Grayson Allen (20.6 ppg,) is a firecracker of sorts. He’s always in attack mode, even when settling for long 3s, which he will whenever it’s there. But it’s his intense and effective driving skills and ability to score in the lane, even on some of the most mind-bogglingly acrobatic shots you will see, that help him on the perimeter. Allen is fearless, unflappable, and few guards in America absorb contact as well as he does.

So, if Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson have Allen checked as more natural athletic fits to defend him, how will UNC defend Ingram?

Williams hinted it will be 6-10 senior Brice Johnson, who’s much more a standard post player as a forward with a forward’s skills, mindset and a player mostly accustomed to checking more traditional forwards.

“He’s different,” Johnson said about Ingram when asked if he’s ever had to extend out defensively to guard a player similar to the young Blue Devil. “He definitely has some long arms and is a very gifted athlete. I don’t think there’s ever been anybody I’ve ever guarded like that.”

How about scenarios when he’s has to step outside and defend for lengthy periods in games?

“There’s definitely been times throughout the year where I’ve had to guard guys

That didn’t post up,” Johnson replied. “The Northern Iowa game, I don’t think (Paul) Jesperson ever posted up and there’s been a few other games where guys never posted up.”

The 6-6 Jesperson, by the way, was 4-12 from the field that afternoon, including 4-11 from 3-point range.

However, it’s not yet a guarantee that Johnson will be on Ingram, certainly not for the majority of the night.

“It’s a question we’re still talking about as a staff,” Williams said. “The easy (decision) is to put Brice on him and say ‘You gotta get out there and guard him, but he’s got to guard you, too on the low post.’

“We had discussions about it this morning in our staff meeting, we’ll probably have some more and I’ll check the moon and the stars tonight and see how thy line up and make a decision.”

This is a matchup issue for the Tar Heels no doubt. Carolina has an advantage inside, but if Johnson picks up a couple of fouls away from the basket trying to defend Ingram, that could negate UNC’s interior edge some, or perhaps a lot.

Maybe a smaller lineup with Justin Jackson on Ingram will be employed some with Johnson the lone big for stretches. Early results and fouls likely will dictate how the Heels handle this tandem.

Force Their Will – Carolina scores more points in the paint than anyone in the ACC, and it’s not really close. Duke has two big men that play, but freshman Chase Jeter rarely gets more than a few minutes and hasn’t been all that effective. In fact, he has more fouls (38) than points this season (34). So, it’s senior Marshall Plumlee (8.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 42 total blocks), whose intense and physical style coupled with actual results have been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Devils this season.

The Tar Heels can run as many as five bigs in there, if you include whatever minutes Joel James and Luke Maye will play. But Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks are a trio Duke simply does not possess. So, UNC must execute its offense properly and work things through the post. If the Heels can get Plumlee in foul trouble, forcing Jeter into the game or Duke to play even smaller, it could take some of the edge off of the Ingram-Allen advantage Duke has on the wing.

Forcing Ingram to defend strong post players routinely making strong post moves is a winning formula for the Tar Heels.

“The biggest thing is attacking them in the lane d trying to get them in foul trouble,” Meeks said about UNC’s advantage.

And really, there isn’t a whole lot more the Tar Heels can say. The majority of questions to the starting five made available to the media Tuesday was about them adjusting to what Duke does because Carolina’ recipe is rather simple.

Part of that formula comes on the glass. Carolina has the tools to dominate the glass in this game therefore it must dominate on the backboards. The more offensive rebounds Duke grabs the more wide open 3s it will also get, and that’s not a recipe for beating them. Also, the more offensive rebounds the Tar Heels get the more they can get into the minds of the Duke players by simply owning the paint.

The 19-1 offensive rebounds disparity Sunday against Pitt mustn’t return, obviously. Perhaps a bit of an anomaly, it still must be a thing of the past, and if so, certainly on this night, the Heels will have a clear advantage.

Williams said the disparity on offensive boards Sunday was the result of three things: Pitt is extremely aggressive going after offensive boards; it missed 42 shots, so it had a lot of opportunities, and some just took so e weird bounces; and the Tar Heels didn’t box out like they should and more often do.

That doesn’t strike as three things that will be issues Wednesday.