Justin Jackson By The Numbers
That Justin Jackson hasn’t entirely lived up to the expectations of the fans and himself, going by his personal stated missions back in the fall, isn’t exactly news to anyone.
Jackson’s production at this point has been below what was reasonably expected and in accordance with his talent and skill levels. Some of his issues have been pretty obvious, such as perimeter shooting.
The 6-8 sophomore from Tomball, TX, has really struggled beyond the arc, shooting 23.1 percent from 3-point range. Yet, overall he’s converting 47.7 percent of his field goal attempts, which means he’s made 60.1 percent of his shots inside the arc this season.
Jackson’s lack of aggressiveness at times, including shying away from contact, even if it means letting go of a floater instead of going strong to the rim, has also drawn criticism.
Though his defense has been cause for concern at times, the other statistical area in which Jackson has been criticized is rebounding the basketball. A point of emphasis from UNC Coach Williams before the season, and something he recently mentioned as something that must improve, Jackson is grabbing only 3.7 missed shots per contest.
But are there other areas, perhaps hidden among the more obvious, that are issues with Jackson’s game? To find out, we peeled away the layers of his two seasons in Chapel Hill to get a full gauge of his performances through 55 games as a Tar Heel.
Broken down are the following: His stats overall as a freshman and sophomore, also broken down by home, true road and neutral site games for both of his seasons and combined. Furthermore, the dissection includes efforts per game, for example 7.6 shot attempts per home game versus 8.3 on the road – those are fictitious numbers to make a point.
In addition, Jackson’s freshman season is aid out into two parts: before his conversation with Williams on the bus returning from a loss at Duke, which was the 26th game of last season, and the final 12 contests of the year.
Trends and other notable stats are also presented.
Here are the numbers:
Freshman Stats
10.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 47.7 fg%, 71.0 FT%, 30.4 3-point%, 26.7 mins
Sophomore Stats
12.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 50% fg, 71.8% FT, 23.1 3-point%, 28.2 mins
Now we break down the stats into three parts: home games, true road games, and neutral site games.
Freshman Year Home (15 games)
10.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 46.6 FG%, 25 3-pt%, 69.2 FT%
8.8 FGA, 2.4 3-PTA, 1.7 FTA
Freshman Year True Road (11 games)
9.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.4 apg, 45.8 FG%, 19.1 3pt%, 69 FT%,
7.5 FGA, 1.9 3PTA, 2.6 FTA
Freshman Year Neutral (12 games)
12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2 apg, 49.6 FG%, 314 3-pt%, 68.4 FT%
9.4 FGA, 2.9 3PTA, 3.2 FTA
Based on these numbers, Jackson was perhaps little more aggressive in neutral site games than at home or away, which was when he was less aggressive trying to score. Maybe it was that he was simply more confident when many of the neutral site games were played. During the impressive stretch over the final 12 games, seven were on neutral courts, including his highest scoring game as a freshman, a 22-point performance versus Virginia in the ACC tournament semifinals.
Other freshman notes:
*Jackson scored in double figures in 22 of UNC’s 38 games as a freshman, but the breakdown says a lot: He was in double figures in just 11 of the first 26 games but reached the mark in 11 of the last 12 games.
*In the first 26 games, Jackson was 96-212 from the field (45.3%) but just 11-54 (20.4%) from 3-point range.
*In the last 12 games, Jackson was 61-117 (52.1%) from the field, including an improved 17-38 from 3, good for 44.7 percent.
Sophomore Year Home (9 games)
11.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 48.3 FG%, 16 3pt%, 57.1 FT%
9.9 FGA, 2.8 3PTA, 2.3 FTA
Sophomore Year True Road (4 games)
15.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 53.2 FG%, 30.1 3-pt%, 100 FT%
11.8 FGA, 3.3 3PTA, 2 FTA
Sophomore Year Neutral (4 games)
14 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.5 apg, 50 FG%, 28.6 3-pt%, 80 FT%
11 FGA, 3.5 3PTA, 2.5 FTA
Like in his freshman season, Jackson has been more productive in neutral site games than the others, though there’s a switch in that he has been more scoring intended at home than on the road so far this season. Like last season, he’s simply been better in neutral site games, which this season includes contests versus Temple, Northwestern, Kansas State and UCLA, so the Heels have played quality competition in those contests.
Other sophomore notes:
*In a 3-game stretch in late November in which Jackson scored in the 20s, he converted 25 of 43 field goal attempts for 58.1 percent. Otherwise, he’s 65-137 (47.4%).
*He was 6-14 from 3-point range in the 3-game stretch, but is 6-38 otherwise, which is 15.8 percent.
*Jackson has scored in double figures in 12 of 17 games.
*Increased rebounding was a stated point of emphasis for Jackson, according to Williams. Yet, Jackson has grabbed just 2 or fewer boards in 8 games and had 4 or more in 8 games with a high of 13 versus Northwestern.
Career Numbers
*Home (24 games): 10.6 ppg; 4.1 rpg; 2.8 apg; 47.3 FG%; 21.3 3pt%; 63.8 FT% - 57.1% on 2-pointers
*True Road (15 games): 10.2 ppg; 3.3 rpg; 2.2 apg; 48.5 FG%; 23.5 3-pt%; 75.7 FT% - 57.3% on 2-pointers
*Neutral (16 games): 12.6 ppg; 3.8 rpg; 2.6 apg; 49.7 FG%; 30.6 3-pt%; 70.8 FT% - 58.3% on 2-pointers
*Double figures in career: Home 14 in 24 games; True road 8 in 15 games; Neutral 12 in 16 games.
*4 high scoring games Home: 16 vs. N.C. State; 16 vs. Virginia Tech; 15 vs. Davidson; 14 vs. UNC-Greensboro
*4 high scoring true road games: 25 at Northern Iowa; 17 at Wake Forest; 16 at Syracuse; 15 at Texas
*4 high scoring neutral games: 22 vs. Virginia; 22 vs. Kansas State; 21 vs. Northwestern; 18 vs. Davidson
*Jackson’s 6 highest scoring games have all come away from Chapel Hill
*2014-15 – 8 times did not attempt a free throw and overall in 8 games did not make one. This season, 2015-16, 5 times have not attempted a free throw but in 8 game have not made one.
So what are we to conclude from all of these numbers? Well, there are three things for certain most observers already knew: Jackson must improve his perimeter shooting; he must be more aggressive trying to score and taking on contact to get to the free throw line more frequently; and he must improve his rebounding numbers, which has been noted here several times.
There aren’t any other underlying issues holding back Jackson. If he was shooting, as an example, 35 percent from 3-point range and got to the line a couple more times a game it likely would increase his average from 12.9 points per game to around 16 this season with continued growth in his game raising the average.
In reality, these are not bad numbers. Maybe the blame should go more to us, the media and fans, for expecting One-And-Done numbers from Jackson when the truth is not many Tar Heels come in and produce as he has and are trusted on the floor for so many minutes as Jackson has been.
What should excite Carolina fans is that he’s not that far away, and with the Tar Heels playing so well it isn’t imperative he gets going this weekend, though it would be nice for the Heels and the segments of the base getting uptight over Jackson not yet living up to his stated standards.
And when Jackson inevitably takes that next big step, and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t, the Heels will elevate their collective game another notch, which might make them the frontrunner to win the national title.